Comparing Future Red Tide Scenarios

For this test run, I took the SEDAR Red Grouper stock assessment and used SSMSE to introduce future red tide events in the OM and EM. There were 6 total scenarios:

  1. default: the base stock assessment with red tide events in 2005 and 2014.
  2. red tide random 10: I used a custom function to generate 10 random red tide events in the projected years.
  3. red tide random 25: I used a custom function to generate 25 random red tide events in the projected years.
  4. red tide regular 3: I added a red tide event every 3 years.
  5. red tide regular 5: I added a red tide event every 5 years.
  6. red tide regular 5 mortality 5: I added a red tide event every 5 years and set the OM mortality to 0.5.

Import the results and summary files from the cloud.

Reviewing time series plots

List of the things we can plot with the ts_plot_variable function:

 [1] "year"        "Area"        "Seas"        "Bio_smry"    "SpawnBio"   
 [6] "Recruit_0"   "retainB_1"   "retainN_1"   "retainB_2"   "retainN_2"  
[11] "retainB_3"   "retainN_3"   "retainB_4"   "retainN_4"   "retainB_5"  
[16] "retainN_5"   "deadB_1"     "deadN_1"     "deadB_2"     "deadN_2"    
[21] "deadB_3"     "deadN_3"     "deadB_4"     "deadN_4"     "deadB_5"    
[26] "deadN_5"     "F_1"         "F_2"         "F_3"         "F_4"        
[31] "F_5"         "SPRratio"    "rec_dev"     "raw_rec_dev" "model_run"  
[36] "iteration"   "scenario"   

Here are the basic plots:

Long-Term SSB and Violin plots

These plots are similar to Doering et al. 2023

This plot takes the longest to process. It generates a plot of the SSB variation by scenario. Then it creates a series of violin plots with the OM and MS for Long-term average catch, Long-term catch variability, Short-term average catch, and Long-term average SSB.

This plot is similar to the Long-term catch variability plot [2] in the previous chunk, but this produces a plot of the coefficient of variation instead of Catch (metric tons).

This just combines the previous plots into a nice 2 by 2 patch work for easier viewing.

Reviewing derived quantities

Some of the same plots above but derived. Below is a list of all the derived quantity variables:

 [1] "Value.SSB"          "Value.Recr"         "Value.SPRratio"    
 [4] "Value.F"            "Value.Bratio"       "Value.ForeCatch"   
 [7] "Value.OFLCatch"     "Value.ForeCatchret" "Value.lnSPB"       
[10] "year"               "model_run"          "iteration"         
[13] "scenario"          

Term Plots

General Brainstorm:

Quantify how often the stock crashes from red tide events? Quantify the loss of catch from each red tide event, then the average loss.

 [1] "year"        "Area"        "Seas"        "Bio_smry"    "SpawnBio"   
 [6] "Recruit_0"   "retainB_1"   "retainN_1"   "retainB_2"   "retainN_2"  
[11] "retainB_3"   "retainN_3"   "retainB_4"   "retainN_4"   "retainB_5"  
[16] "retainN_5"   "deadB_1"     "deadN_1"     "deadB_2"     "deadN_2"    
[21] "deadB_3"     "deadN_3"     "deadB_4"     "deadN_4"     "deadB_5"    
[26] "deadN_5"     "F_1"         "F_2"         "F_3"         "F_4"        
[31] "F_5"         "SPRratio"    "rec_dev"     "raw_rec_dev" "model_run"  
[36] "iteration"   "scenario"   

More plots

If a red tide event happens in the last 3 years of the simulation, Stock Synthesis overestimates the mortality event by X.

Weird plots

Mean ratio plots

Terminal year plots

Only red tide years

B/W terminal year plots

All years.

Fishing terminal year plots

Fishing terminal year plots all years

Plots of all years instead of just red tide years

Terminal year with added mean line

Only years with red tide events

Fishing terminal year plots

I was redoing the mean lines and sds, and noticed that the EM:OM ratio would be NA if the EM F is zero (happens a lot in F_5). I added those NAs back in as zeros and it dramatically dampens the F_5 “spike”. So I filtered this data to only years where a red tide occurred to highlight that the spike in the terminal year trend is only relevant to red tide years.

New complex Ratio plots

All years, biomass ratios

I was redoing the mean lines and sds, and noticed that the EM:OM ratio would be NA if the EM F is zero (happens a lot in F_5). I added those NAs back in as zeros and it dramatically dampens the F_5 “spike”. So I filtered this data to only years where a red tide occurred to highlight that the spike in the terminal year trend is only relevant to red tide years.

Red tide years, biomass ratio

This is the biomass ratios in just the red tide years so the trends are more clear in Fleet 5.

Red tide years, biomass ratio, just Com and Rec Retained and Discards

This is the biomass ratios in just the red tide years so the trends are more clear in Fleet 5.